Appreciate that detailed response and your thoughts Falcon.
On top line concerns- I see where these are coming from and they make sense at face value. My only problem with them is they have been made
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<p>Appreciate that detailed response and your thoughts Falcon. </p>
<p>On top line concerns- I see where these are coming from and they make sense at face value. My only problem with them is they have been made before against the company when they were growing 50% in 2018-2019. Your comment on the stock not going parabolic until COVID is wrong in my opinion, the stock went from 6 euros to 25 in 1 year in 2019 as they were showing accelerating growth and margin improvement before COVID hit in March 2020. (look at the quarters in 2019 and the trajectory of the business before q1 2020, in particular the US.) </p>
<p>On your question about churn- I think customer churn has been relatively stable over the last quarters and has normalised already due to no lockdowns. I believe there has been a structural shift in consumer behvaiours and habits that has helped HF. My counter point to you on this is also have a look at Blue Apron and the other small players, they have already normalised and started to go into decline. Why in your opinion is HF which is 100x bigger than these companies able to grow 200% over 2 years when these smaller players have already gone ex growth? </p>
<p>On couponing- I think HF is an incredible data machine. The company has amazing data on their customers behaviour and they can target cohorts with very accurate promotions, this has worked very successfully in the last 10 years and the larger they get the better and more accurate their targetting becomes, so im not as worried as you on how promotional the company is being. </p>
<p>Finally, I think its incredibly foolish to bet against this management team. I'm very bullish on their ability to execute in these difficult times and they have proven time and time again they can come out on top. You have so many free options like the expansion of the extras on the menus and the exponetional growth of Factor which opens up a whole new market for them. Their guidance setting at the start of every year has proven to be very conservative, seems a bit risky to think this time is any different? </p>
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